GAMECHANGER 2035

Under current climate policies, the world has a 66% probability of 3.1°C of warming by 2100, but already by 2035 impacts will be felt. At 3°C, 200 cities could suffer >35°C for half the year, spurring droughts, storms and crime. Berlin could bake in extreme heatwaves, NYC could turn desolate from frequent storm surges and flooding. By 2100, life-threatening heat and humidity are expected to impact 1⁄2 to 3⁄4 of the global population. 1 in 2 people live in cities, which may suffer twice the level of heat stress compared to rural areas, and labor capacity could drop 20% in hot periods. ​10% of the world’s population live on coastlines less than 10m above sea level, which may rise by half a meter by 2100. By 2050, over 1bn people will likely be at risk of coastal climate hazards and between 216m and 1bn climate refugees may be displaced from their homes. Lightning may increase by 12% for each 1°C of warming, exacerbating wildfire risk. Even volcanic eruptions and earthquakes may surge as hydrostatic pressure on the Earth’s mantle reacts to the changing precipitation intensity and glacier melt. For some crops like wheat, the growing season length and growth rate in Northern Europe may increase, due to warmer temperatures and high CO₂ levels, but overall yields will likely drop as crops are ravaged by growing volumes of pests, precipitation changes, and other climate effects. As disaster looms, humanity must do everything in its power to keep the Earth habitable, if not necessarily comfortable.

In 2023, there were 3.9m industrial and service robots operational around the world, amounting to a robot density of 151 robots per 10,000 employees, which is more than twice the number measured in 2016. While traditional high-speed industrial robots will remain important for improving productivity, the true change comes in the form of human-robot collaboration: Rapid advances in sensors, vision technologies and smart grippers allow autonomous mobile robots to respond in real-time to changes in their environment and thus work safely alongside human workers.3 Paired with machine learning algorithms, collaborative robots will become able to learn and adapt quickly to new environments and applications, turning into multi-purpose robots.4 This will radically widen the application fields for robots and economic impacts could be tremendous. Plausible estimations of a quick robot adoption scenario project an extra USD 4.9tr, about +4.5%-points, for the global economy by 2030.5 More extreme projections see CAGRs of up to 10% by the early 2030s, and even a seemingly outlandish 100% p.a. increase of GDP by the late 2030s.6 A key driver for such growth could be a rapid increase in the capabilities and use of multi-purpose robots, potentially in humanoid form, which would drastically reduce the hourly cost* of (robot) labor, while also boosting the productivity of human workers.7,8 Besides commercial applications from the factory shopfloor to hospital hallways, robots are also coming for household chores: Experts predict up to 40% of domestic tasks could be automatable by 2035.9 

For ages, mobility has been dominated by ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicles, defined by incremental innovations with a focus on improving fuel efficiency and safety. Private ownership has been dominant, while cars are mostly standalone machines with little integration into broader systems, influencing infrastructure designs, which are mostly inefficient. As result, traffic congestion has persisted, while transport remains a large global CO₂ emitter (21%). But, the need for greener, more efficient options, alongside policies and tech advances like batteries are driving a change in mobility. Today, EVs have emerged and are increasingly adopted. Led by China, global EV sales reached 17m in 2024, marking a 20% year-on-year increase, and are likely to reach 71m by 2035. Mobility is further transformed by the rise of micromobility, advances in CAVs (Connected and Autonomous Vehicles), smart infrastructure, and urban air mobility (UAM). By 2035, MaaS (Mobility as a Service) could be mainstream connecting diverse travel modes, advanced integrated and connected vehicles could be common sight on roads, while UAM could be a viable option for transport. Also, aviation is advancing with innovations in faster, larger and greener aircrafts, and high-speed rail (HSR) networks are expanding, mostly in Asia and the EU, offering fast and efficient intercity travel. The Hyperloop concept promises even faster travel, though it is still experimental. By 2030, HSR is expected to offer better options to air travel for medium-distance trips, while supersonic air travel will have re-emerged, with speed about 2 times that of Concorde, but greener, safer and more affordable.

In 2023, over 90% of the chemical industry's raw materials came from fossil carbon. A circular value chain for embedded carbon is unfeasible with fossil feedstocks due to limited recyclability. The industry must defossilize to achieve a sustainable, circular economy. This involves exploring three potential solutions: recycling, biomass materials, and carbon capture and utilization (CCU), each with unique advantages and challenges. Recycling faces the challenge of requiring clean, well-sorted waste due to sensitivities of the processes. The demand for plastic waste as a sustainable feedstock is projected to reach around 210m tons annually by 2030. However, current projections suggest recyclers will only be able to supply about half of this, necessitating stronger cooperation with waste management companies to secure more high-quality, sorted waste. Biomass and CCU are facing significant economic hurdles. Biomass pretreatment is costly, and many technologies are still in early stages, requiring significant research and investment. 
Although the CO₂ available from emissions is 16 times higher than the global chemical industry’s expected carbon demand in 2030, only 0.003% is projected to be utilized for CCU by then due to high costs and immature technologies. The transition to renewable carbon will redefine the chemical industry, altering production locations, shifting resource procurement to bio-based sources, decentralizing supply chains, and driving regulatory changes.
 

Advances in multi-layer neural networks first theorized in the 80s, coupled with greater computing power and storage made “Deep Learning”* a possibility. Then Deep Learning was adapted by businesses and governments to find useful patterns in big data of all kinds. Today, AI algorithms can recognize faces and speech, translate languages, support material discovery, and create pictures and movies. For more and more people, the daily use of an AI tool like ChatGPT or Microsoft Copilot is becoming the new normal. On the way to 2035, AI will evolutionarily reshape many aspects of society. From auditing, administration, jurisdiction, legislation, law enforcement, medical care, education, research and innovation, to even arts and culture ‒ AI applications will spread in all of those areas and more, offering cost, efficiency, speed and quality benefits that can’t be ignored. Already in 2017, analyst of Deloitte estimated that in the US alone AI in government can create potential annual savings of USD 41.1bn while easing personnel challenges. Therefore, it can be assumed that in the future, AI will become the true backbone of many societies, paving the way for an AI society where many decisions will be AI-supported or even done automatically by AIs. However, the proliferation of AI will come with tradeoffs, like compromised privacy, deskilling and displacement of professions, and difficult conversations about ethics, privacy, and regulation.

Construction has long depended on manual labor and basic tools, with techniques like bricklaying, carpentry concrete pouring, and materials like wood, concrete and steel often used. Project management relied on paper systems, causing delays and inefficiencies. Despite mechanization and CAD (Computer-Aided Design) transforming design in the late 20th century, the industry is still viewed as conservative, and accounts for 39% of global energy-related CO₂ emissions. A growing housing gap, high CO₂ footprint, and rising costs (plus maintenance, a hidden cost driver) are prompting change in the sector, and tech advancement is enabling this change.7,8,9 BIM (Building Information Modelling), for instance, is transforming CAD, enhancing collaboration, reducing errors in projects, and reducing costs. New techniques like modularization, 3D printing, robotics, and AI are allowing for rapid prototyping, waste reduction, building of complex structures, and efficiency gains. Drones are enhancing inspection and surveying, and together with AVs (Autonomous Vehicles), improving material transportation on jobsites. Also, green materials, and the integration of smart systems are enabling CO₂ reduction and building energy savings. By 2035, many job sites could be fully automated with minimal need for workers, accelerating projects by up to 70%, reducing waste by 60%, and costs by 20%. Variations between CAD planning and on-site realities will have decreased. While infrastructure spendings could reach USD 100tn by 2040, buildings could be built with less, super-strong, yet lighter and greener materials, with superior insulation, and the ability to self-repair.

The idea of enhancing our bodies is not new, but recent advances in biotechnology, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence are set to make these enhancements truly transformative. Today, we see the beginnings of this transformation in technologies like advanced prosthetics, cochlear implants, and wearable health monitors. However, the future promises far more profound changes. Enhancements in physical, cognitive, emotional, and sensory capabilities could lead to the emergence of superhumans. Integrating digital interfaces directly with the brain could enable seamless communication with computers and other digital devices. This development would facilitate augmented vision, allowing individuals to overlay digital information seamlessly onto their real-world view, revolutionizing how we interact with our environment. Sensory enhancements might extend our ability to perceive a broader spectrum of light or hear beyond the normal range, while cognitive enhancements could enable rapid problem-solving by accessing vast knowledge databases with just a thought. Ultimately, this fusion of man and machine is likely to produce humans with vastly increased intelligence, strength, and lifespans—approaching a near-divine status. However, this new era would not be without challenges. Societal rifts and new inequalities could arise between augmented and non-augmented humans, raising concerns about privacy, autonomy, and control. Questions will surface: What constitutes a human accomplishment? What is considered the new normal?

The world may be entering a new era of ID driven by high population density, increased human mobility, intense livestock farming, and deforestation. Climate change is acting as an additional catalyst by expanding the range and transmission opportunities of dangerous pathogens. The global COVID-19 pandemic has put this development into stark relief with about 780m infections and 7.1m deaths between 2020 and November 2024. An increase in emerging and re-emerging IDs has been observed for decades, but concerns grow regarding public complacency toward such threats, with vaccine confidence declining especially among individuals under 35. Moreover, rising antimicrobial resistance may be heralding a post-antibiotic era. NCDs, such as cancer, cardiovascular issues, and diabetes, still dominate as leading causes of mortality. Their prevalence is set to rise further, overburdening healthcare systems worldwide, unless innovative approaches to prevention and NCD management tailored to aging populations can curb pervasive unhealthy lifestyles. Moreover, awareness for mental health conditions (MHC) has been growing. With 15% of the working-age population impacted, resulting in 12bn lost workdays and costing the economy an estimated USD 1tr annually, the need for adequate mental health resources is undeniable. Future efforts must focus on reducing stigma, expanding access to care, and developing more effective treatments to address this growing crisis.

Today, advancements in nanotechnology and techniques such as scanning tunneling microscopy, nanoscale 3D printing, and design of custom proteins are paving the way for practical molecular manufacturing. The potential impact of molecular manufacturing would be vast. In electronics, it could lead to ultra-efficient high-performance devices with nanoscale components. In medicine, it promises breakthroughs in targeted drug delivery and regenerative tissue engineering. Energy storage would be boosted by the development of highly efficient batteries and advanced solar cells. But misuse could result in the creation of devastating weaponry.
Molecular manufacturing, the “holy grail” of molecule-making, would revolutionize the production landscape, transforming how we create high performance products to a level of unprecedented precision, efficiency, and quality. Unlike traditional manufacturing methods that often involve cutting down larger materials, molecular manufacturing uses programmable tools to build items from the ground up. Single atoms are positioned to create specific chemical bonds, building larger structures atom by atom. Instead of relying on expensive and scarce resources, molecular manufacturing takes advantage of the abundant nanoscale elements around us. There are hurdles to overcome, but the revolution it would produce makes it far too tantalizing to disregard.

We owe this tremendous increase mostly to improving health, nutrition and hygiene standards, even though these improvements were made to eliminate health risks and diseases in general rather than to increase lifespans. But this is changing: A growing number of scientists see the eradication of aging itself as a possible and plausible way to avoid deadly diseases. 
Today, aging is not understood just as a God-given fate but as a complex interplay of myriads of biological processes which lead to unwanted results, namely the deterioration of the human body, finally resulting in death. For this reason, researchers of the WHO (World Health Organization) as well as the FDA (United States Food and Drug Administration ) proposed in 2019 that aging should be recognized as a disease. In 2022 the proposal went into effect. This spurred the founding of dozens of research institutes, e.g., the Buck Institute for Research on Aging, the Stanford Center on Longevity, and the Max Planck Institute for Biology of Ageing, as well as private institutions, e.g., the most prominent SENS Research Fondation6 and myriads of startups, that focus on understanding and eventually curing age-related diseases and thus aging itself. If they succeed, humankind will see the advent of high-age societies where 100 will be the new 60. As a result of this thriving ecosystem, the first longevity drugs are in clinical trials, and a longevity industry is emerging. It is estimated that the total value of longevity therapies was USD 25.1bn in 2020, and might reach USD 44.2bn by 2030, not counting the potential of replacing conventional therapeutics, such as Type 2 diabetes treatments, which alone is a USD 127bn market.